Synopsis.
Name
Jevons Paradox. A resource is made to go twice as far per unit, honestly and cleverly, so surely half as much will now be used ... except that going twice as far makes the service half as dear, and half as dear is twice as wanted, and uses that never paid before suddenly pay, so the meter that was meant to fall climbs, and efficiency, the thing bought to save the resource, spends more of it than before.
Arc
The bend is this: use a resource more efficiently, and the total used goes up, not down. It runs on a step that the saving hides: the efficiency does not just cut the resource per unit of service, it cuts the price of the service itself. Make an engine burn half the fuel for the same mile, and the mile costs half as much to travel, so more miles are travelled, by more people, to more places, and journeys that were never worth the fuel become worth it now. The per-unit saving is real and is booked, but it is booked against a demand assumed to hold still, and demand does not hold still: it rebounds toward the lower price, and where the rebound is large enough it more than eats the saving, and the resource burned in total rises above where it started. Nobody wastes. The engineer really did double the efficiency, the forecast really did project the saving, the driver really is just responding to a cheaper mile, and the new uses are real value, not waste. The paradox is that thrift per unit, unpriced at the level of the whole, is an invitation to use more. Cap the resource itself, or price it, so the efficiency saves the whole and not just the unit: put the ceiling on the total, and the gain is kept ... leave it on the unit, and the gain is spent.
Stakes
Whether efficiency ever saves the whole, or only ever the unit. Every plot but the last moves the same way: not toward less of the resource, toward more of the service it now cheaply buys. The production cannot make a cheaper thing less wanted. It can only show that no one wasted and every unit was leaner, that the engineer saved, the forecaster projected, and the user and the pioneer simply answered a lower price, and that the one move that would have kept the saving, a cap or a price on the resource itself, is the one the efficiency was offered as a way to avoid.
Estate
khai-misfits: the house that holds this production and answers for the whole run.